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- ð¬ "This is naive. China WILL weaponize their Treasury holdings when push comes to shove. It's their trump card against US hegemony! Don't underestimate the CCP's resolve." (çããªããããšãªã£ããäžåœã¯çµ¶å¯Ÿç±³åœåµãæŠåšåãããç±³åœã®èŠæš©ã«å¯Ÿããåãæã ïŒäžåœå ±ç£å ã®æ±ºæã䟮ããªã)
- åè«:
- ð¡ïž ãããããèšäºã§ããŒã¿ãšããžãã¯ã§ç€ºããã§ããïŒð èªåã®æã£ãŠãæ ªãæŽèœãããŠåŸããæè³å®¶ã¯ããªãã®ãšåãã§ãäžåœèªèº«ã倧æãããã§ãããããã«ãåžå Žã¯å åãããããFRBãé»ã£ã¡ãããªãããæ±ºæãã ãããçµæžåçæ§ã¯èŠããªãã£ãŠã粟ç¥è«ã§éèã¯åãããŸãããã
- äºæž¬ã³ã¡ã³ã2 (é°è¬è«è ):
- ð¬ "The 'official' holdings data is fake news! China holds WAY more Treasuries through proxies in Belgium, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands... They could crash the market tomorrow if they wanted!" (ãå ¬åŒãã®ä¿æããŒã¿ãªããŠãã§ã€ã¯ãã¥ãŒã¹ã ïŒäžåœã¯ãã«ã®ãŒãã«ã¯ã»ã³ãã«ã¯ãã±ã€ãã³è«žå³¶ãšãã®ä»£ç人ãéããŠããã£ãšå€§éã«ä¿æããŠããã âŠæ¬æ°ã«ãªãã°ææ¥ã«ã§ãåžå Žãã¯ã©ãã·ã¥ãããããïŒ)
- åè«:
- ð¡ïž ããŒããä»åœçµç±ã§ã®ä¿æã¯ç¢ºãã«ææãããŠãããã©ãããããåžå Žãã¯ã©ãã·ã¥ãããããã»ã©ãã®èŠæš¡ã§ããã€ãç§å¯è£ã«äžæå£²åŽã§ãããã£ãŠèããã®ã¯ãã¡ãã£ãšæ ç»ã®èŠããã§ã¯ïŒð¬ å€§èŠæš¡ãªååŒã¯é ããªããã代ç人çµç±ã§ã売ãã°äŸ¡æ Œã¯äžãããçµå±ãèªçãªã¹ã¯ã¯å€ãããªããã§ãããé°è¬è«ã¯é¢çœããã©ãçŸå®ã¯ãã£ãšå°å³ã§ãã
- äºæž¬ã³ã¡ã³ã3 (æé·äžèœè«è ):
- ð¬ "The US WWII debt proves we can just grow our way out of debt. Stop the austerity talk, just focus on innovation and GDP growth! r < g forever!" (ã¢ã¡ãªã«ã®ç¬¬äºæ¬¡å€§æŠã®åéã¯ãæé·ã§åµåãå æã§ããã£ãŠèšŒæããŠããç·çž®è²¡æ¿ã®è©±ã¯ãããŠãã€ãããŒã·ã§ã³ãšGDPæé·ã«éäžããïŒæ°žé ã« r < g ã ïŒ)
- åè«:
- ð¡ïž ã ããããã®ãæé·ç¥è©±ãã debunk ããã®ããã®èšäºã®ãã€ã³ãã ã£ãŠã°ïŒð è«æïŒAcalin & BallïŒèªãã ïŒæŠåŸã®åµååæžã¯ã財æ¿é»åãšé婿å¶ã»ã€ã³ãã¬ã£ãŠãããç¹æ®èŠå ãã倧ããã£ãã®ãr < g ã®å¹æã ããããå šç¶è¶³ããªãã£ããæŽå²ãéœåããè§£éãã¡ããã¡ã§ãããæé·ã¯ãã¡ãã倧äºã ãã©ãããã ããã解決ããªãã®ãçŸå®ã
- äºæž¬ã³ã¡ã³ã4 (ãžã£ãã€ã«æç掟):
- ð¬ "Jamaica? Seriously? A tiny island nation heavily reliant on tourism and IMF bailouts? Their 'success' is irrelevant for major economies like the US or EU. It's apples and oranges." (ãžã£ãã€ã«ïŒæ¬æ°ãïŒèгå ãšIMFã®ææžã«å€§ããäŸåããã¡ã£ãœããªå³¶åœã ãïŒåœŒãã®ãæåãã¯ã¢ã¡ãªã«ãEUã¿ãããªäž»èŠçµæžã«ã¯ç¡é¢ä¿ãæ¯èŒã«ãªããªããã)
- åè«:
- ð¡ïž ãã¡ãããèŠæš¡ãæ§é ã®éãã¯èšäºã§ãè§Šããéãã§ããã§ãããå šãç¡é¢ä¿ãã£ãŠåãæšãŠãã®ã¯ãã£ãããªãã§ããããã€ã³ãã¯ãã©ããã£ãŠåœæ°çåæãäœã£ããããšããå®å¹æ§ã®ãã財æ¿ã«ãŒã«ãã©ãéçšããããã£ãŠéšåãèŠæš¡ã¯éãã©ãæ¿æ²»çãªæææ±ºå®ããã»ã¹ãå¶åºŠèšèšã®ãã³ãã¯é ãããŠãã¯ããä»å±±ã®ç³ãã£ãŠãã€ã§ããã
- äºæž¬ã³ã¡ã³ã5 (ããŒã¿æç掟):
- ð¬ "Interesting studies, but it's all just academic modeling based on assumptions. Real world is far more complex. We can't really predict how households or markets will react." (é¢çœãç ç©¶ã ãã©ãçµå±ã¯ä»®å®ã«åºã¥ããåŠè¡çãªã¢ããªã³ã°ã«éããªããçŸå®äžçã¯ãã£ãšè€éã ãå®¶èšãåžå Žãã©ãåå¿ããããæ¬åœã«äºæž¬ãªããŠã§ããªããã)
- åè«:
- ð¡ïž éãææïŒç¢ºãã«çµæžã¢ãã«ã¯çŸå®ã®åçŽåã ããå®ç§ãªäºæž¬ã¯äžå¯èœã§ããã§ããã ããã£ãŠãäœãåãããªãããããããªããRCTïŒã©ã³ãã 忝èŒè©ŠéšïŒã¿ãããªææ³ã¯ãã§ããã ãä»®å®ãæé€ããŠå æé¢ä¿ãæ¢ãããšããåªåã®è¡šããããŒã¿ãšåæã«åºã¥ããŠããããããåŸåããããããããããªã¹ã¯ãèãããããã£ãŠè°è«ããããšã¯ãåœãŠãã£ãœããããã£ãšå»ºèšçã ãšæããŸãããïŒð€ å šéšåãããªããŠããåãã£ãŠãããšããåŠã¶å§¿å¢ã倧äºããšã
ãããã®è°è«ã¯çç³æ··äº€ã§ãããææ è«ãé°è¬è«ã«æµããããããŒã¿ãè«çã«åºã¥ããŠå·éã«èããããšãéèŠã§ããïŒðª
â ã¡ãã£ãšäžæ¯ïŒãããæ°ã¯æåŒ·ãïŒ
ãããŒãæµ·å€ã®ãããæ°ããªããªãæå³ããã§ãããð ã§ããããããããã³ãããããããããè°è«ãæ·±ãŸãã£ãŠåŽé¢ããããŸããããäžæ¹çãªæ å ±ã ããããªããæ¹å€çãªæèŠã«ãè³ãåŸããïŒãããŠãã¡ãããšåè«ããïŒïŒããšã§ãããæ¬è³ªã«è¿ã¥ããæ°ãããŸããããã¬ãŒãšããŠããåžžã«ããã³ããæ³å®ããŠæžããªããšâŠïŒâïž
9. çµè«ïŒåµåã®ç©èªãšæªæ¥ãžã®æèš ð
çµå±ã®ãšãããåœå®¶ã®åµååé¡ãšã¯ãæ°åã®ã²ãŒã ã§ãããšåæã«ã壮倧ãªãç©èªãã®æ§ç¯ãšä¿¡èªã®åé¡ãªã®ãããããŸãããäžåœãç±³åœåµã売ããšãããè åšã®ç©èªãã¯ãããŒã¿ãèŠãéãçŸå®å³ã倱ãã€ã€ãããŸããã¢ã¡ãªã«ãæé·ã ãã§åéãè¿ãããšãããæåã®ç©èªãã¯ãæŽå²ã«ãã£ãŠä¿®æ£ãè¿«ãããŸãããè±åœã®ãæ³å€ãªç¹æš©ã®ç©èªãã¯ãæä»£ã®å€åãšãšãã«çµãããåããŸããã
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- 財æ¿ã«ãŒã«ãšç€ŸäŒã¢ãã«ã®æ¯èŒç ç©¶ïŒ ãžã£ãã€ã«ã®ãããªæåäŸã ãã§ãªããæ§ã ãªåœã®è²¡æ¿ã«ãŒã«ã瀟äŒçãªåæåœ¢æã¡ã«ããºã ïŒãããã¯ãã®æ¬ åŠïŒãæ¯èŒåæããã©ã®ãããªå¶åºŠèšèšãæ¿æ²»ããã»ã¹ãæç¶å¯èœãªè²¡æ¿ã«ç¹ãããããã®ããæããã«ããç ç©¶ãããã«ãããååœã¯èªåœã®ç¶æ³ã«åã£ããããå®å¹æ§ã®ããæ¹é©ãžã®éçãèŠã€ãããããªãã§ãããã
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12. çšèªçŽ¢åŒïŒã¢ã«ãã¡ãããé ïŒ ð
- CBO (Congressional Budget Office) [Link]: ç±³åœè°äŒäºç®å±ãé£éŠè°äŒã®ããã®ç¬ç«ããåææ©é¢ã§ãäºç®ãçµæžã®èŠéããäœæããã
- CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) [Link]: ç±³åœå€äº€åé¡è©è°äŒãç±³åœã®å€äº€æ¿çãšåœéé¢ä¿ã«é¢ããæåãªã·ã³ã¯ã¿ã³ã¯ã
- Convenience Yield [Link]: ã³ã³ãããšã³ã¹ã»ã€ãŒã«ããç¹å®ã®è³ç£ïŒç¹ã«å®å šè³ç£ãšãããåœåµãªã©ïŒãä¿æããããšã§åŸããããééçãªå©åã以å€ã®äŸ¿çïŒæµåæ§ã®é«ããååŒã®ãããããå®å šæ§ã®é«ããªã©ïŒã®ããšã
- Exorbitant Privilege [Link]: æ³å€ãªç¹æš©ãåºè»žé貚åœããèªåœé貚建ãŠã§åœéååŒã®æ±ºæžãè¡ã£ãããä»åœãããäœãéå©ã§è³é調éã§ãããããã¡ãªããã®ããšãå ã ã¯ãã©ã³ã¹ã®ãžã¹ã«ãŒã«ã»ãã¹ã¿ã³è²¡åçžãç±³ãã«ã«å¯ŸããŠçšããèšèã
- Fed (Federal Reserve Board) [Link] [Link]: ç±³é£éŠæºåå¶åºŠçäºäŒãã¢ã¡ãªã«ã®äžå€®éè¡å¶åºŠã®äžæ žæ©é¢ãéèæ¿çïŒé婿äœãéçç·©åãªã©ïŒãæ åœããã
- Fiscal Ownership [Link]: è²¡æ¿ææãæ¿åºã ãã§ãªããåœæ°ã瀟äŒå šäœã財æ¿ç¶æ³ã財æ¿å建ã®å¿ èŠæ§ãèªãã®åé¡ãšããŠèªèãã責任æãæã€ããšã
- Fiscal Rules [Link] [Link]: 財æ¿ã«ãŒã«ãæ¿åºã®è²¡æ¿éå¶ïŒæ³åºãæ³å ¥ã財æ¿åæ¯ãåµåæ®é«ãªã©ïŒã«å¯ŸããŠãæ°å€ç®æšãæç¶ãäžã®å¶çŽã課ãã«ãŒã«ã®ããšã財æ¿èŠåŸãç¶æããããšãç®çãšããã
- FTPL (Fiscal Theory of the Price Level) [Link]: ç©äŸ¡æ°Žæºã®è²¡æ¿çè«ãç©äŸ¡æ°Žæºã¯ãéèæ¿çã ãã§ãªããæ¿åºã®è²¡æ¿æ¿çïŒçŸåšã®åµåãšå°æ¥ã®è²¡æ¿é»åã®çŸåšäŸ¡å€ãšã®é¢ä¿ïŒã«ãã£ãŠã決ãŸããšããçè«ã
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product) [Link] [Link] [Link]: åœå ç·çç£ãäžå®æéå ã«åœå ã§çç£ãããã¢ãããµãŒãã¹ã®ä»å 䟡å€ã®åèšé¡ãåœã®çµæžèŠæš¡ã瀺ã代衚çãªææšã
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- IMF (International Monetary Fund) [Link] [Link]: åœéé貚åºéãåœéçãªéèååãçºæ¿çžå Žã®å®å®ãç®çãšããåœéæ©é¢ãå çåœãžã®çµæžèª¿æ»ãæ¿çæèšãéèæ¯æŽãªã©ãè¡ãã
- JGB (Japanese Government Bond) [Link]: æ¥æ¬åœåµãæ¥æ¬æ¿åºãçºè¡ããåµåžã®ããšã
- MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) [Link]: çžäºç¢ºèšŒç Žå£ãæ žä¿æåœå士ããçžæããæ žæ»æãåããŠã確å®ã«å ±åŸ©æ žæ»æã§èãé£ãæå®³ãäžããããèœåãç¶æããããšã§ãäºãã«æ žå µåšã®äœ¿çšãæããšã©ãŸããããšããææ¢æŠç¥ã
- MAFD (Mutually Assured Financial Destruction) [Link] [Link]: çžäºç¢ºèšŒéèç Žå£ãMADãããã£ãèšèãäž»èŠçµæžåœïŒç¹ã«ç±³äžïŒãéèçãªææ®µïŒäŸïŒçžæåœé貚ãåœåµã®æã売ãïŒã§æ»æãåã£ãå Žåãåæ¹ãšãã«å£æ» çãªçµæžçææãåãããããå®éã«ã¯ãã®ãããªæ»æã¯è¡ãããªãã ãããšããèãæ¹ã
- MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) [Link]: çŸä»£è²šå¹£çè«ãèªåœé貚建ãŠã§åœåµãçºè¡ããæ¿åºã¯ãé床ãªã€ã³ãã¬ã«ãªããªãéãã財æ¿èµ€åãåµåæ®é«ãå¿é ããå¿ èŠã¯ãªããšããçè«ãäž»æµæŽŸçµæžåŠããã¯ç°ç«¯èŠãããããšãå€ãã
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Asset /ËÊsÉt/
- Meaning: Something valuable belonging to a person or organization which can be used for the payment of debts. (è³ç£ã財ç£)
- Example: The company's assets include buildings and machinery.
- Synonyms: Property, capital, resources, holdings.
-
Debt /dÉt/
- Meaning: A sum of money that is owed or due. (åéãåµå)
- Example: The company is trying to reduce its debt.
- Synonyms: Liability, obligation, deficit, arrears.
-
Deficit /ËdÉfɪsɪt/
- Meaning: The amount by which something, especially a sum of money, is too small; the amount by which money spent is more than money received. (èµ€åãäžè¶³é¡)
- Example: The country has a large budget deficit.
- Synonyms: Shortfall, deficiency, loss, negative balance.
-
Economy /ɪËkÉnÉmi/
- Meaning: The system of trade and industry by which the wealth of a country or region is made and used. (çµæž)
- Example: The global economy is facing a slowdown.
- Synonyms: Financial system, commerce, industry, wealth.
-
Expectation /ËÉkspÉkËteɪÊÉn/
- Meaning: A strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future. (äºæ³ãæåŸ )
- Example: Household inflation expectations rose last month.
- Synonyms: Anticipation, forecast, prediction, outlook.
-
Fiscal /ËfɪskÉl/
- Meaning: Relating to government revenue, especially taxes. (財æ¿ã®ãäŒèšã®)
- Example: The government implemented new fiscal policies.
- Synonyms: Financial, monetary, budgetary, economic.
-
Fundamental(s) /ËfÊndÉËmÉntÉl(z)/
- Meaning: Forming a necessary base or core; of central importance. (åºæ¬çãªãæ ¹æ¬çãªïŒ[è€æ°åœ¢ã§]çµæžã®åºç€çæ¡ä»¶)
- Example: The country's economic fundamentals remain strong.
- Synonyms: Basic, essential, underlying, core principle(s).
-
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) /ËdÊiË diË ËpiË/
- Meaning: The total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year. (åœå ç·çç£)
- Example: The debt-to-GDP ratio is a key indicator.
- Synonyms: National output, economic output.
-
Inflation /ɪnËfleɪÊÉn/
- Meaning: A general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money. (ã€ã³ãã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ãç©äŸ¡äžæ)
- Example: High inflation erodes the value of savings.
- Synonyms: Price increase, cost push, demand pull, devaluation.
-
Interest rate /ËɪntrÉst reɪt/
- Meaning: The proportion of a loan that is charged as interest to the borrower, typically expressed as an annual percentage of the loan outstanding. (éå©ãå©ç)
- Example: The central bank decided to raise interest rates.
- Synonyms: Cost of borrowing, yield, rate of return.
-
Maturity /mÉËtÊÊÉrÉti/
- Meaning: The time when an investment or insurance policy becomes ready to be paid. (æºæãåéæé)
- Example: The average maturity of the government debt is relatively short.
- Synonyms: Due date, expiration, completion.
-
Policy /ËpÉlɪsi/
- Meaning: A course or principle of action adopted or proposed by a government, party, business, or individual. (æ¿çãæ¹é)
- Example: The government announced a new environmental policy.
- Synonyms: Strategy, plan, guideline, approach.
-
Surplus /ËsÉËplÉs/
- Meaning: An amount of something left over when requirements have been met; an excess of production or supply over demand. (é»åãäœå°)
- Example: Jamaica achieved a large primary budget surplus.
- Synonyms: Excess, remainder, profit, positive balance.
-
Treasury (bond/bill) /ËtrÉÊÉri/
- Meaning: (Usually the Treasury) The government department responsible for financial matters such as taxation and public spending. Treasury bonds/bills are debt securities issued by the government. (財åçïŒç±³åœè²¡åç蚌åž)
- Example: China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries.
- Synonyms: Exchequer, finance ministry; government bond/note/bill.
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