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ãããããã®ç ç©¶ãRedditã®r/economicsãHackerNewsã®ãããªãçµæžããã¯ãããžãŒã«é¢å¿ãé«ãå±€ãéãŸãè±èªåã®ãããã³ãã¥ããã£ã§è©±é¡ã«ãªã£ãããã©ã®ãããªã³ã¡ã³ããä»ããããã«å¯ŸããŠã©ãåè«ã§ããã§ããããïŒããã€ãäºæ³ããŠã¿ãŸãããã
äºæž¬ãããã³ã¡ã³ã 1:
"So basically the central banks have been subsidizing commercial banks with taxpayer money while fighting inflation? That's outrageous! ð "
ïŒèŠããã«ãäžå€®éè¡ã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ãšæŠããªãããçšéã§åæ¥éè¡ã«è£å©éãåºããŠãã£ãŠããšïŒãšãã§ããªãïŒïŒ
åè« 1:
"Precisely! That's the core issue highlighted by De Grauwe & Ji. Their proposed two-tier system aims to rectify this 'unintended subsidy' and make monetary policy fairer and potentially more effective. It's not about attacking banks, but about fixing a flawed mechanism that arose post-QE."
ïŒãã®éãïŒãŸãã«ããããã»ã°ã©ãŠãŠã§æ°ããææããæ žå¿çãªåé¡ç¹ã§ãã圌ããææ¡ãã2å±€ã·ã¹ãã ã¯ããã®ãæå³ãã¬è£å©éããæ¯æ£ããéèæ¿çãããå
¬å¹³ãã€å¹æçã«ããããšãç®æããŠããŸããéè¡ãæ»æããã®ã§ã¯ãªããQEåŸã«çããæ¬ é¥ã®ããã¡ã«ããºã ãä¿®æ£ããããšãã話ã§ããïŒ
äºæž¬ãããã³ã¡ã³ã 2:
"Interesting theory about the equity channel weakening the policy transmission. But can this two-tier reserve system actually work in practice without destabilizing the financial system? Sounds risky. ð€"
ïŒæ ªåŒãã£ãã«ãæ¿çäŒéã匱ããã£ãŠçè«ã¯è峿·±ãããã§ãããã®2å±€æºåéã·ã¹ãã ã£ãŠãéèã·ã¹ãã ãäžå®å®åãããã«å®éã«æ©èœããã®ïŒãªã¹ã¯ãé«ããã ãã©ãïŒ
åè« 2:
"Good point. The authors argue the impact on bank profitability would be manageable given their current record profits (citing S&P). Also, the Swiss National Bank has already moved in a similar direction, reducing remuneration on required reserves. It's not just theory; there's empirical evidence (Eurozone data) and real-world examples suggesting feasibility. Of course, careful implementation and monitoring are crucial."
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äºæž¬ãããã³ã¡ã³ã 3:
"The 'long and variable lags' paper confirms what we already suspected. If policy effects take 3+ years to fully materialize, isn't monetary policy basically useless for fine-tuning the economy? Maybe focus should be elsewhere. ð€·ââïž"
ïŒãé·ãå€åããã©ã°ãã®è«æã¯ãæã
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åè« 3:
"It definitely highlights the difficulty, but not uselessness. Recognizing these lags is crucial for *better* policy. It means central banks need to be forward-looking and patient, avoiding overreaction to short-term data. The disaggregated analysis also helps understand *how* the effects spread, potentially leading to more nuanced policy approaches. Ignoring monetary policy isn't an option when facing major inflation shocks; understanding its limitations and transmission is key."
ïŒç¢ºãã«é£ãããæµ®ã圫ãã«ããŸãããç¡çšã ãšããããšã§ã¯ãããŸããããããã®ã©ã°ãèªèããããšãã*ããè¯ã*æ¿çã®ããã«äžå¯æ¬ ãªã®ã§ããäžå€®éè¡ã¯å
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äºæž¬ãããã³ã¡ã³ã 4:
"Why focus only on interest rates and reserves? What about fiscal policy coordination or supply-side reforms? Monetary policy can't solve everything. ðïžð"
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åè« 4:
"Absolutely valid point. These papers focus specifically on improving monetary policy tools and understanding their transmission, but they don't claim it's the only solution. Effective inflation control often requires a multi-pronged approach, including prudent fiscal policy and measures to address supply bottlenecks. These studies contribute one important piece to that larger puzzle."
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åèæç® ð
- Aruoba, B and T Drechsel (2022), âIdentifying monetary policy shocks: A natural language approachâ, voxeu.org, 17 May. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Aruoba, B and T Drechsel (2024), âThe Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indicesâ, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19175. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Belhocine, N, A Bahtia, J Frie (2023), âInterest Rate Hikes, Large Balance Sheets, and Euro System Net Income and its Fiscal Implicationsâ, IMF Working Paper, July. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Boucinha, M, S Holton, A Tiseno (2017), âBank equity valuation and credit supplyâ, ECB Working Paper. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- De Grauwe, P and Y Ji (2023a), âMonetary policy without subsidising banks: A two-tier system for reserve requirementsâ, voxeu.org, 13 March. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- De Grauwe, P and Y Ji (2023b), âMonetary Policy Without Giveaways to Banksâ, CEPR Discussion Paper 18103. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- De Grauwe, P and Y Ji (2023c), âFighting Inflation More Effectively Without Transferring Central Banksâ Profits to the Banksâ, cesifo Discussion Paper. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Diamond, DW and RG Rajan (2000), âA Theory of Bank Capitalâ, Journal of Finance 55(6): 2431-2465. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Highly cited academic paper)
- English, B, K Forbes and à Ubide (2024), âThe monetary policy response to post-pandemic inflation: Challenges and lessons for the futureâ, voxeu.org, 14 February. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Financial Times (2023), âEuropean banks reveal boost from rate risesâ, 23 October. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: Medium-High, reputable news source, link not provided in original)
- Fricke, D, S Greppmair, K Paludkiewicz (2023), âExcess Reserves and Monetary Policy Tighteningâ, Discussion Paper, Bundesbank, Frankfurt. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Central bank research)
- Friedman, M (1960), A Program for Monetary Stability, Fordham University Press. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Foundational work)
- Friedman, M (1961), âThe Lag in Effect of Monetary Policyâ, Journal of Political Economy 69: 447â466. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Foundational work)
- Gambacorta, L and HS Shin (2016), âWhy bank capital matters for monetary policyâ, BIS Working Papers 558. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Girotti, M and G Horny (2020), âBank equity value and loan supplyâ, Banque de France Working Paper No. 767. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High)
- Jorda, O (2005), âEstimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projectionsâ, American Economic Review 95: 161â182. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Widely used econometric method)
- Lagarde, C (2023), âLetter to members of the European Parliamentâ, European Central Bank, 22 September. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Official communication)
- Ramey, VA (2016), âMacroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagationâ, Handbook of Macroeconomics 2: 71â162. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Survey article by leading expert)
- Standard & Poor's (2023), âEurozone Banks: Higher Reserve Requirements Would Dent Profitability And Liquidity . . .â (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Reputable rating agency, specific link not provided in original)
- Swiss National Bank (2023), âPress releaseâ, 30 October. (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Official announcement)
- Van den Heuvel, S (2002), âDoes Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Transmission?â, Economic Policy Review 8(1). (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trust: High - Academic research)
çšèªçŽ¢åŒ (ã¢ã«ãã¡ãããé ) ð
-
Equity Channel (æ ªåŒãã£ãã«): [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯]
éè¡ã®èªå·±è³æ¬ïŒæ ªäž»è³æ¬ããšã¯ã€ãã£ïŒã®å¢æžãããã®éè¡ã®è²žåºæ 床ã«åœ±é¿ãäžããçµè·¯ã®ããšãèªå·±è³æ¬ãæžããšè²žåºãçµããå¢ãããšè²žåºãå¢ããåŸåãããã
-
FFR (Federal Funds Rate): [ãªã³ã¯]
ãã§ãã©ã«ã»ãã¡ã³ãéå©ãç±³åœã®æ¿çéå©ã§ãããéè¡éã§æºåéã貞ãåãããéã®éå©ã®èªå°ç®æšã
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FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares): [ãªã³ã¯]
å®çŸå¯èœãªäžè¬åæå°äºä¹æ³ãçµ±èšåŠçãªæšå®ææ³ã®äžã€ã§ã誀差é éã«çžé¢ãäžç忣ãããå Žåã«ãããå¹ççãªæšå®å€ãåŸãããã«çšããããã
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HAC (Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent): [ãªã³ã¯]
äžç忣ã»èªå·±çžé¢é å¥ãçµ±èšçæšèšã«ãããŠã誀差é ãäžç忣ïŒã°ãã€ããäžå®ã§ãªãïŒã§ãã£ãããèªå·±çžé¢ïŒæéçã«é¢é£ãããïŒãæã£ãŠãããããå Žåã§ããä¿¡é Œã§ããæšæºèª€å·®ïŒæšå®å€ã®ç²ŸåºŠïŒãèšç®ããããã®ææ³ã
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IRF (Impulse Response Function): [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯]
ã€ã³ãã«ã¹å¿ç颿°ãããçµæžå€æ°ïŒäŸïŒæ¿çéå©ïŒã«ã·ã§ãã¯ïŒäºæãã¬å€åïŒãå ãã£ããšããå¥ã®çµæžå€æ°ïŒäŸïŒç©äŸ¡ïŒããã®ã·ã§ãã¯ã«å¯ŸããŠæéãéããŠã©ã®ããã«åå¿ãããã瀺ã颿°ãŸãã¯ã°ã©ãã
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Local Projections (ããŒã«ã«ã»ãããžã§ã¯ã·ã§ã³): [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯]
çµæžå€æ°éã®åçãªé¢ä¿ïŒç¹ã«ã€ã³ãã«ã¹å¿çïŒãæšå®ããããã®èšéçµæžåŠçææ³ã®äžã€ãåæç¹ã®å¿çãåå¥ã®ååž°åŒã§æšå®ããã
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PCEPI (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index): [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯] [ãªã³ã¯]
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This article uses several economics and finance terms. Here are some key English words with examples, pronunciation (IPA), and synonyms:
-
Remuneration (noun) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: Payment for work or services, or (in this context) interest paid on reserves held at the central bank.
- Example: The central bank increased the remuneration rate on bank reserves.
- Pronunciation: /rɪËmjuËnÉËreɪÊ(É)n/
- Synonyms: Payment, compensation, interest (on reserves), reward.
-
Quantitative Easing (QE) (noun) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: A monetary policy where a central bank purchases government bonds or other securities from the market to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment.
- Example: After the financial crisis, many central banks implemented Quantitative Easing.
- Pronunciation: /ËkwÉntɪtÉtɪv ËiËzɪÅ/
- Synonyms: Asset purchase program, large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs).
-
Equity Channel (noun phrase) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: The transmission mechanism of monetary policy that operates through the effect of policy changes on banks' equity or capital positions, which in turn affects their lending behavior.
- Example: The study investigates how the bank equity channel influences credit supply.
- Pronunciation: /Ëekwɪti ËtÊÊn(É)l/
- Synonyms: Bank capital channel.
-
Impulse Response Function (IRF) (noun phrase) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: In econometrics, a function that describes how an economic variable responds over time to an exogenous shock or 'impulse' (like a sudden change in interest rates).
- Example: The Impulse Response Function shows that prices react negatively to a monetary tightening shock after several quarters.
- Pronunciation: /ËɪmpÊls rɪËspÉns ËfÊÅkÊ(É)n/
- Synonyms: Dynamic response, shock response.
-
Disaggregated (adjective) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: Broken down into component parts; not aggregated.
- Example: They analyzed disaggregated price data for different categories of goods and services.
- Pronunciation: /dɪsËÊɡrɪɡeɪtɪd/
- Synonyms: Decomposed, detailed, itemized, component-level.
-
Local Projections (noun phrase) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: An econometric method used to estimate impulse response functions directly by running separate regressions for each forecast horizon.
- Example: Impulse responses were estimated using local projections.
- Pronunciation: /ËlÉÊk(É)l prÉËdÊekÊ(É)nz/
- Synonyms: (Methodological term, few direct synonyms).
-
Lag (noun) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: A period of time between one event and another; a delay. In economics, often refers to the delay between a policy action and its effect.
- Example: Monetary policy affects the economy with long and variable lags.
- Pronunciation: /lÊɡ/
- Synonyms: Delay, time lag, interval, latency.
-
Transmission Mechanism (noun phrase) [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link] [Link]
- Meaning: The process through which monetary policy decisions affect the economy in general and the price level in particular.
- Example: The study examines the transmission mechanism of interest rate changes to inflation.
- Pronunciation: /trÊnzËmɪÊ(É)n ËmekÉnɪz(É)m/
- Synonyms: Policy transmission, channel of monetary policy.
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